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CONSTRUCTION KNOWLEDGE BLOG

June 4, 2012

CA High Speed Rail: Looking Worser and Worser
Filed under: Industry outlook — Tags: — nedpelger

The $68B US high speed rail system proposed in California seems to be a stimulus project. Yet stimulus projects (funded by the government to prime the economic pump and get some money flowing through construction) should be spent on projects that substantially improve the country. The interstate highway system built in the 1950s achieved that goal.

High speed internet access for everyone or smart electrical grid applications seem to be great stimulus projects for today. The CA high speed rail project, though, just doesn’t pass the smell test. The huge cost to only slightly improve the commute from San Francisco to Los Angeles from the current plane, train and automobile options would never get done with private money.

In fact, one of the biggest project criticisms came from Huffington Post regarding the low projected operating costs. They write:

If the bullet train project is to pencil out, it must operate far more economically than any high-speed rail system in the world, according to the experts, who include former World Bank executive William Grindley.

Unless these extraordinary economies actually are achieved, the train will require alarmingly high annual operating subsidies “forever,” as the experts wrote in a report last month. The annual operating deficit could top $2 billion.

On another project front, ENR reports that farm groups filed a major environmental lawsuit seeking a preliminary injunction to block the start of construction. Making that a double whammy, the Orange County Transportation Authority want to spend much less money and simply improve the current train service. They question all the project parameters, but particularly the demand:

“We are building something new and haven’t proven there is a pent-up demand for train travel…. I find this process almost surreal,” Orange County Supervisor and transportation authority Director John Moorlach said at a recent board meeting.

So if I were a betting man, I’d be wagering that this project will be a non-starter.

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