Builders broke ground on a near record number of new housing units throughout the pandemic, but many were delayed by supply chain constraints, labor shortages, and inflated materials costs. Now, as conditions improve, experts are anticipating a sharp increase in new supply in late 2022 and early 2023.
According to Bill McBride in the CalculatedRisk Newsletter, total completions, including single family, multi-family, and manufactured homes, will increase by 10% in 2022 to nearly 1.6 million.
The breakdown of my current estimate is:
- Single family completions will increase to around 1.05 million from 970 thousand in 2021.
- Multi-family (including 2 to 4 units) will increase to around 420 thousand from 364 thousand in 2021.
- Manufactured homes will increase to around 120 thousand from 106 thousand last year.
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