U.S. Home Prices Are Still Rising, but at a Moderating Pace

National home prices, including distressed sales, increased 10.1% year-over-year in October 2022, but fell by 0.1% on a monthly basis compared with September 2022, according to CoreLogic’s most recent Home Price Index (HPI). The latest forecast anticipates a stagnant 0.0% gain from October 2022 to November 2022, and though more annual gains are expected in the year ahead, home price growth is moderating in a nationwide housing correction.

Year-over-year home price growth recorded in October remained in the double digits, but was the lowest seen since early 2021 due to low inventory from hesitant sellers, homebuyer loss of purchase power, and economic uncertainty.

Annual U.S. price growth is expected to taper off in the coming months, perhaps moving into negative territory by spring 2023, but then slowly ticking back into single digits as the year progresses.

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Bellingham, WA is at a very high risk (70%-plus probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Bremerton-Silverdale, WA; Crestivew-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL;  Tacoma-Lakewood, WA and Salem, OR are also at very high risk for price declines.  

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