As 2022 comes to a close, prospective homebuyers are breathing a sigh of relief and hoping for greater affordability in 2023, but according to Bill McBride’s CalculatedRisk Newsletter, expert forecasts for the next 12 months reveal only one steady housing trend in the near future: uncertainty. Though 2022 saw steep declines in new and existing home sales as well as total housing starts from the year prior, the year to come could see a faster sales pace if mortgage rates moderate.
In the meantime, home prices are still on the rise, but McBride predicts that housing costs will decline in 2023 and fall 10% or more from peak-to-trough.
There is an especially wide range in the forecasts for house prices and shows the difficulties in modeling this housing cycle. My view is house prices will decline in 2023 and will fall 10% or more from peak-to-trough (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory).
Advertisement
Related Stories
Economics
The US Housing Market Faces Uncertainty, But There Are Signs of Recovery Ahead
There’s improvement, just don’t expect the housing market to return to pre-pandemic norms
Demographics
Despite Having Nondiscriminatory Housing Laws, LGBTQ+ Community Still Can’t Afford Homes in These Areas
In cities where LGBTQ+ people make up the largest share of the adult population, less than 10% of homes are affordable
Market Data + Trends
1.5M Housing Units Need to Be Added to Balance US Housing Market
The housing market will likely see challenges persist if inventory isn’t added to accommodate growing demand